Mandera South MP: 2022 results and votes to win in 2027
Past results for the Member of National Assembly seat in Mandera County, and what it would take to win it in the August 2027 general election, based on public IEBC data.
2022 result
| Winner | Haro Abdul Ebrahim (United Democratic Movement) |
|---|---|
| Winning votes | 7,832 (—) |
| Registered voters | 34,691 |
| Votes cast | 24,464 |
| Turnout | 70.5% |
Our source published the winning result only, so runner-up figures are not shown.
Votes to win in 2027
- Votes likely to be cast if turnout repeats 70.5%: 24,464
- Votes to win: 12,233
- Safer target (55.0%): 13,456
This assumes turnout and the winning share repeat. It is not a forecast.
Test your strongholds in Mandera South MP: mark the areas that support you, the swing areas and your opponent’s, and see how many votes that gives you. Free.
Start a free campaign analysis for Mandera South MP: the field organisation, polling agents, logistics and illustrative budget this seat could need.
Other seats in this county
Wards (MCA seats)
Questions
Who won the Mandera South MP seat in 2022?
Haro Abdul Ebrahim (United Democratic Movement) won with 7,832 votes.
How many votes does it take to win Mandera South MP in 2027?
If turnout repeats 70.5%, about 24,464 votes will be cast. More than half is 12,233 votes; a safer target is 13,456. This is not a forecast.