🗳️ KENYA 2027: THE SWING COUNTIES THAT COULD DECIDE THE PRESIDENCY

The 2022 presidency was decided by 233,211 votes. Here are the counties where the vote was closest, the counties on the 25% line, and where 7.8 million registered voters stayed home.

By UshindiOS Election Intelligence · 2026-10-25 · 4 min read

Election Intelligence | 25 October 2026 | UshindiOS

In 2022, William Ruto won the presidency with 7,176,141 votes (50.49%) against Raila Odinga's 6,942,930 (48.85%). The difference was 233,211 votes: 1.64 percentage points out of more than 14 million votes cast.

A race that close is not decided in the strongholds. It is decided in the handful of counties where the vote was split, in the counties sitting on the constitutional 25% line, and among the millions of registered voters who did not vote at all.

This article looks at all three, county by county, using the 2022 IEBC results. It describes 2022. It does not predict 2027.

1. How the presidency is won

To win outright, a presidential candidate needs more than half of all the votes cast and at least 25% of the votes in each of more than half of the 47 counties, which means at least 24 counties (Constitution, Article 138(4)).

The second rule is why a presidential campaign cannot ignore any region. In 2022:

Both candidates cleared the 24-county bar comfortably. In a closer field, or a race with a strong third candidate, the 25% rule can matter as much as the national total.

2. The closest counties in 2022

In most counties, one candidate won by a wide margin. In seven, the presidential vote was within about 11 points:

Marsabit      ███ 2.7
Kajiado       ███ 3.4
Narok         ████ 3.6
Trans Nzoia   ██████ 6.1
Lamu          ███████ 6.6
Isiolo        ██████████ 10.1
Tana River    ███████████ 10.6

The five counties within 10 points cast 1,030,128 votes between them. Kajiado and Narok alone cast more than 615,000, and turnout in Narok was 77.3%, one of the highest in the country.

3. The counties on the 25% line

The 25% rule turns some lopsided counties into battlegrounds of a different kind. Here, the question is not who wins the county, but whether the trailing candidate reaches a quarter of the vote.

In 2022 these counties were close to that line:

Machakos sat just below the line in 2022 and Kiambu and Garissa just above it. A swing of one or two points in counties like these moves a candidate's 25% count up or down.

4. The voters who stayed home

Across the 47 counties, 7,833,340 registered voters did not vote in 2022: 35.7% of the register, and more than 33 times the national winning margin.

They are concentrated in the biggest counties:

Nairobi     ████████████████████ 1,048,478
Kiambu      █████████ 449,845
Nakuru      ███████ 368,104
Mombasa     ███████ 354,334
Kakamega    ██████ 338,946

Nairobi alone had more registered non-voters than the whole of the national margin four times over. In a close 2027 race, bringing out voters who stayed home may matter as much as persuading voters who went the other way.

5. What makes a swing county in 2027

On the 2022 record, a county is worth watching in 2027 if it has one or more of these:

• A close result: a margin under 10 points, like Marsabit, Kajiado, Narok, Trans Nzoia and Lamu

• A share near 25% for a candidate who needs that county to reach 24

• Many registered non-voters, like Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru and Mombasa

• New voters: counties where the 2027 register grows the most

Alliances change between elections, and 2027 will not be a rerun of 2022. These figures show where the 2022 vote was closest, not how anyone will vote next time.

6. Build your own 2027 scenario

The free UshindiOS scenario tool lets you mark each county as a stronghold, a swing county or an opponent's area, say how people vote there, and see the national total that gives. It checks the 25% rule county by county as you go.

Build your 2027 election scenario

You can also see the full 2022 presidential result for every county on the Kenya presidential election page, and the 2022 results for every seat, county by county.

7. Questions for the 2027 cycle

• Do Marsabit, Kajiado and Narok stay as close as they were in 2022?

• Which candidates reach 25% in at least 24 counties, and which counties decide that?

• Will the 1 million registered voters in Nairobi who stayed home in 2022 vote in 2027?

• Where will the next voter registration drive add the most new voters?

These figures describe the 2022 election as published. They are not a prediction of how anyone will vote in 2027.

Sources: IEBC 2022 presidential results as held by UshindiOS · Constitution of Kenya, Article 138(4) · Kenya presidential election 2022 on UshindiOS

Build your 2027 scenario