🗳️ NAKURU 2027: THE 368,104 VOTERS WHO STAYED HOME

368,104 registered Nakuru voters did not vote in 2022, 1.7 times the Governor's winning margin. Here is where they live, ward by ward.

By UshindiOS Election Intelligence · 2026-10-24 · 4 min read

Election Intelligence | 24 October 2026 | UshindiOS

In 2022, Susan Kihika won the Nakuru governorship with 440,704 votes, a margin of 215,081 over Lee Kinyanjui. That margin is the number most people remember.

It is not the biggest number in Nakuru's 2022 election. That belongs to a group that appears on no results sheet: 368,104 registered voters who did not vote at all, more than a third of the county's register and 1.7 times the winning margin.

Where do they live? Which wards hold most of the votes? Where was Nakuru genuinely close? Every answer below comes from one document: the Where Your Votes Are report for Nakuru, which you can download today.

Download the full Nakuru report: 6 pages, all 11 constituencies and all 55 wards, KES 3,999 paid once by M-Pesa, no account needed. Get the Nakuru report

1. The race everyone remembers

Kihika      ████████████████████████████ 440,704
Kinyanjui   ██████████████ 225,623

UshindiOS records 1,053,277 registered voters in Nakuru in 2022, 685,173 votes cast and a turnout of 65.1%. If turnout and the winning share were to repeat, a 2027 candidate would need about 442,815 votes. These are descriptions of 2022, not forecasts.

Source: ushindios.com/elections/governor/nakuru

2. The voters nobody counted

Of Nakuru's 1,053,277 registered voters, 368,104 did not cast a ballot: 34.9% of the register.

Did not vote     ████████████████████████ 368,104
Winning margin   ██████████████ 215,081

They are not spread evenly. Three constituencies, Naivasha, Nakuru Town East and Nakuru Town West, account for 150,132 of them.

The two Nakuru Town constituencies had the lowest turnout in the county, 60.4% and 62.4%, while Kuresoi South turned out at 75.4%.

3. Ward by ward: where they live

A county average hides where the work is. Nakuru has 55 wards, and 21 of them cast half of all the votes in 2022. The wards with the most registered voters who stayed home:

Kaptembwo     ████████████████████ 14,850
Njoro         ███████████████████ 14,077
Biashara      ██████████████████ 13,311
Nakuru East   █████████████████ 12,793
Gilgil        █████████████████ 12,359

Kaptembwo, a single ward, had 14,850 registered voters who did not vote: almost as many as the whole of Kuresoi South constituency (16,290).

4. Where Nakuru was close

Nakuru as a whole leaned one way in the 2022 presidential vote, but five wards were within 6.2 points:

The presidential ballot was cast by the same voters on the same day, so it shows how a ward leaned in 2022. It is not the result of the governor's race, and a close result in 2022 is not evidence that 2027 will be close.

5. Where the votes are in play

Put the two pictures together, the non-voters and the close wards, and a short list emerges. Our report ranks every ward by votes in play: its registered voters who did not vote, plus the votes cast there when the 2022 presidential vote was close. The rule favours no candidate or party.

1. Njoro: 14,077 non-voters and 23,819 votes cast in a ward decided by 5.5 points

2. Biashara: 13,311 non-voters and 19,746 votes in a 6.1-point ward

3. Elburgon: 9,462 non-voters and 14,954 votes in a 6.2-point ward

4. London: 8,616 non-voters and 13,805 votes in a 3.6-point ward

5. Shaabab: 8,165 non-voters and 12,396 votes in a 4.9-point ward

For anyone planning a 2027 campaign in Nakuru, these five wards are where the 2022 record says the most votes were within reach.

6. Download the full Nakuru report

Everything in this article comes from the Where Your Votes Are report for Nakuru, and the report goes much further. It is a 6-page PDF you keep, with:

• At a glance: registered voters, turnout, non-voters, the 2022 winner and margin, and the votes needed to win in 2027

• The full 2022 race: every candidate, with votes and share

• Where the votes are: all 11 constituencies ranked, with their polling stations

• Who did not vote, and where they are: every constituency ranked by its non-voters

• How each constituency voted for President in 2022

• Ward by ward: all 55 wards grouped by constituency, with voters, turnout, non-voters, presidential lean and polling stations

• Where to focus first: the five wards with the most votes in play, and why

How to get it: open the Nakuru Governor page, choose Where Your Votes Are, and pay KES 3,999 once by M-Pesa. No account is needed, and the PDF downloads straight away.

Download the Nakuru report

Not in Nakuru? The same report exists for every county, constituency and ward: KES 3,999 for a Governor, Senator or Woman Representative seat, KES 1,499 for an MP seat and KES 499 for an MCA seat. Find your seat.

7. Questions for the 2027 cycle

• Will the 368,104 Nakuru voters who stayed home in 2022 vote in 2027, and for whom?

• Will the urban wards of Nakuru Town East and West keep the lowest turnout in the county?

• Do the five close wards stay close, or was 2022 a one-off?

• How many new voters will the next registration drive add, and where?

These figures describe the 2022 election as published. They are not a prediction of how anyone will vote in 2027.

Sources: Nakuru Governor 2022 · Nakuru County seats · IEBC 2022 results as held by UshindiOS.

Download the Nakuru report