Arabia Ward MCA: 2022 results and votes to win in 2027
Past results for the Member of County Assembly seat in Mandera County, and what it would take to win it in the August 2027 general election, based on public IEBC data.
2022 result
| Winner | Ali Daud Sheikh (Independent) |
|---|---|
| Winning votes | 1,612 (—) |
| Registered voters | 4,187 |
| Votes cast | 2,629 |
| Turnout | 62.8% |
Partial results: the source is missing some polling streams or minor candidates, so totals and shares may differ slightly from the official IEBC tally. View source
Votes to win in 2027
- Votes likely to be cast if turnout repeats 62.8%: 2,629
- Votes to win: 1,315
- Safer target (55.0%): 1,446
This assumes turnout and the winning share repeat. It is not a forecast.
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Questions
Who won the Arabia Ward MCA seat in 2022?
Ali Daud Sheikh (Independent) won with 1,612 votes.
How many votes does it take to win Arabia Ward MCA in 2027?
If turnout repeats 62.8%, about 2,629 votes will be cast. More than half is 1,315 votes; a safer target is 1,446. This is not a forecast.